Business uncertainty is no longer arriving as a single shock that firms can model, manage and move past.
It is becoming a recurring operating condition, and that shift is changing how finance teams forecast demand, price goods, manage supply chains and absorb costs.
The PYMNTS Intelligence report, “Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High,” part of The 2026 Certainty Project, finds that 27% of heads of payments said their firms faced a high level of uncertainty in March 2026. Among goods companies, that share rose to 47%.
Even so, the report also offers a more positive signal: 72% of payment leaders expect uncertainty to decline over the next 12 months, suggesting many firms see today’s pressure as difficult but temporary.
The new angle in the data is less about one disruptive event and more about how companies are learning to plan through repeated disruptions. Last year, tariffs created pressure around pricing, supply chains and demand.
This year, geopolitical conflict and broader global stress have introduced a different kind of shock. The source changed, but the effect looked familiar. Forecasts became harder to trust, goods firms felt the impact first and companies facing the most pressure paid more to operate.
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Three data points show how uneven that pressure remains:
- 27% of heads of payments said their firms faced a high level of uncertainty in March 2026. That figure is close to levels seen during earlier tariff-related disruptions, showing that volatility has not fully faded from business planning.
- 47% of goods firms reported high uncertainty. That was far above the overall sample and higher than the level reported by services firms, reinforcing how quickly supply chains, inventory exposure and input costs can complicate forecasts for companies that make, move or sell physical products.
- 72% of payment leaders said uncertainty will get better over the next 12 months. That optimism suggests many executives view current volatility as something to manage through rather than a permanent break in operating conditions.
The report also highlights the financial cost of uncertainty. Across all firms, the total financing cost tied to uncertainty stood at 2.9% of revenue over the past year. That is lower than some prior tariff-era estimates, but the average masks a sharp divide.
Firms facing high uncertainty reported costs equal to 6.2% of revenue, more than double the overall sample. Goods firms also remained more exposed than services firms, which points to the practical burden of planning when demand, supply and pricing can all move at once.
For banks, payment providers and other financial partners, the findings point to a clear opportunity. Firms do not only need capital when uncertainty rises. They need better visibility, faster information and payment tools that help them adjust before pressure becomes expensive.
Faster settlement, improved cash forecasting and more flexible financing can help companies manage volatility without freezing investment or overcorrecting on costs.
Business uncertainty remains high, but many firms are not treating it as a reason to stop planning. They are learning to plan differently. The companies that build stronger forecasting habits, tighter working capital controls and faster payment processes may be better positioned for the next shock, whatever form it takes.
At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.
