{"id":3742069,"date":"2026-05-18T14:21:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T18:21:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/?post_type=cpi_posts&#038;p=3742069"},"modified":"2026-05-18T14:21:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T18:21:56","slug":"cftc-is-using-ai-to-combat-insider-trading-on-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"cpi_posts","link":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/cpi-posts\/cftc-is-using-ai-to-combat-insider-trading-on-prediction-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"CFTC Is Using AI to Combat Insider Trading on Prediction Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">The\u00a0Commodity Futures Trading Commission\u00a0is increasingly relying on artificial intelligence-powered surveillance tools and blockchain analytics software to combat insider trading and market manipulation on prediction markets such as\u00a0Polymarket.<\/p><div\r\n\tid=\"article-paywall-overlay\"\r\n\tclass=\"d-none\"\r\n>\r\n\t<div id=\"article-paywall-content\" class=\"my-4\">\r\n\t\t\n<div class=\"wpcf7 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class=\"fw-bold\" href=\"https:\/\/pymnts-com-develop.go-vip.net\/privacy-policy\/\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a class=\"fw-bold\" href=\"https:\/\/pymnts-com-develop.go-vip.net\/terms-conditions\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a>.\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t<p><input id='hiddenPath' type='hidden' name='path' value='' \/><input type='hidden' name='userDeviceId' id='userDeviceId' \/><input type='hidden' name='pageTitle' id='pageTitle' \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t<div id='formButtonRow' class='container mt-1 px-0'>\n\t\t\t\t\t<p><input class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-submit has-spinner btn btn-dark text-uppercase py-2 px-5 small\" id=\"theSubmitButton\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"post_id\" value=\"3742069\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"source\" value=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/cpi-posts\/cftc-is-using-ai-to-combat-insider-trading-on-prediction-markets\/\" \/><p style=\"display: none !important;\" class=\"akismet-fields-container\" data-prefix=\"_wpcf7_ak_\"><label>&#916;<textarea name=\"_wpcf7_ak_hp_textarea\" cols=\"45\" rows=\"8\" maxlength=\"100\"><\/textarea><\/label><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ak_js_1\" name=\"_wpcf7_ak_js\" value=\"111\"\/><script>document.getElementById( \"ak_js_1\" ).setAttribute( \"value\", ( new Date() ).getTime() );<\/script><\/p><div class=\"wpcf7-response-output\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n\r\n\t<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"article-paywall-hidden-content\">\r\n\t\n<p class=\"p1\">According to comments by CFTC Chair\u00a0Michael Selig\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/polymarket-insider-trading-cftc-michael-selig-interview\/\"><span class=\"s1\">in an interview with WIRED<\/span><\/a>, the agency\u2019s growing focus on predictive markets comes amid mounting political scrutiny over suspicious trading activity tied to geopolitical events and war-related contracts on offshore exchanges. Selig told WIRED that the CFTC is actively monitoring U.S.-based traders who use virtual private networks to access foreign prediction markets that are technically unavailable to Americans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cWe&#8217;re going to find them, and we&#8217;re going to bring actions,\u201d Selig said in the interview.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The comments underscore how federal regulators are attempting to expand oversight of prediction markets even as much of the trading activity occurs outside traditional U.S. regulatory frameworks. Polymarket, which operates using cryptocurrency infrastructure and is blocked for U.S. users, has faced repeated allegations of insider trading connected to bets on military conflicts and political developments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Selig indicated that the CFTC\u2019s enforcement strategy increasingly depends on software-driven analysis because of the agency\u2019s limited staffing resources. \u201cYou\u2019ve got so much data,\u201d Selig said. \u201cWhen we feed it into AI, we get really great information. It can help us understand things, like where we might want to investigate, or when we might need to send a subpoena to a trader.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The WIRED report noted that the CFTC is \u201cespecially lean right now\u201d and is using automation to manage growing enforcement demands. The agency\u2019s toolkit includes proprietary surveillance systems as well as commercial software products such as blockchain tracing tools from\u00a0Chainalysis\u00a0and market abuse detection software including Nasdaq Smarts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The increased use of automated surveillance mirrors a broader trend among regulators and trading platforms that are turning to AI-assisted compliance systems to monitor large volumes of trading data for unusual patterns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Prediction market operators themselves have also moved to strengthen monitoring systems amid criticism over potential manipulation. WIRED previously reported that\u00a0Kalshi\u00a0recently said it had suspended users and flagged customers for insider trading and market manipulation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: <a class=\"h6\" title=\"CFTC Moves To East Reporting Requirements for Prediction Markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/cpi-posts\/cftc-moves-to-east-reporting-requirements-for-prediction-markets\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">CFTC Moves To East Reporting Requirements for Prediction Markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Polymarket likewise announced a partnership with Chainalysis in April after backlash over suspicious trading activity. The company also updated its market integrity rules and entered a separate partnership with\u00a0Palantir Technologies\u00a0for U.S.-based sports prediction markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The CFTC\u2019s enforcement push comes as lawmakers intensify pressure on the agency to address insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets tied to military conflicts and foreign policy developments. Sen.\u00a0Chris Murphy\u00a0(D-CT) previously suggested White House staffers could be involved in trading on war-related contracts, while several members of Congress have formally asked the CFTC to investigate overseas prediction markets offering military-action contracts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Selig told WIRED the agency is pursuing \u201chundreds, if not thousands\u201d of insider trading tips.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The chairman also emphasized that the agency\u2019s investigations extend beyond federally regulated exchanges. \u201cWe\u2019re surveilling the markets on a global basis,\u201d Selig said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">According to the article, the CFTC is willing to assert extraterritorial jurisdiction in certain cases involving offshore platforms if trading activity affects U.S. markets or participants. Selig pointed to authority granted under the 2010\u00a0Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, particularly involving foreign swap activities with U.S. implications.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">So far, federal prosecutors have publicly charged only one individual with insider trading connected to prediction markets: a U.S. Army special forces soldier accused of trading on contracts tied to the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Polymarket later said it had flagged the suspicious trades to authorities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Still, Selig made clear that the agency views the Maduro-related case as an opening move rather than an isolated enforcement action. The CFTC, he said, intends to pursue wrongdoing \u201cno matter \u2018how large or how small.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>\r\n\twindow.pymntsAllowedArticleCount = 1;\r\n\twindow.pymntsPostID = 3742069;\r\n<\/script>","protected":false},"featured_media":1431117,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","pymnts_footnotes":""},"cpi_category":[81221],"cpi_tag":[81293,81884,167113,140415,81374],"class_list":["post-3742069","cpi_posts","type-cpi_posts","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cpi_category-in-the-news","cpi_tag-ai","cpi_tag-cftc","cpi_tag-prediction-markets","cpi_tag-pymnts-dt","cpi_tag-techreg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.2 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CFTC Is Using AI to Combat Insider Trading on Prediction Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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